Dating the Business Cycle in Britain

Dating Business Cycle in Oil Exporting Countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the relationship between oil price changes and output in a group of oil exporting countries. The dynamics of business cycles in Libya, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Kuwait, Venezuela and Qatar are modeled by alternative regime switching models. We show that the extension of uni-variate Markov Switching model in order to include oil revenue improves dating busi...

Nowcasting , Business Cycle Dating

A modelling framework is proposed in which the real time informational context of decision-making is properly reflected. Comparisons are drawn with ‘standard’ estimated models that incorrectly omit market-informed insights on future macroeconomic conditions and inappropriately incorporate information that was not available at the time. An analysis of quarterly US data 1968q4-2006q1 shows that n...

New algorithms for dating the business cycle

A new strategy for dating the business cycle turning points, both in the classical and the deviation sense, is presented. After reviewing the available solutions, and in particular the popular Bry and Boschan routine, the role of filtering operations in the preliminary identification of candidate turning points is discussed. Low-pass filters are employed to reduce the amplitude of those fluctua...

Two Flaws in Business Cycle Dating

Working papers of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment on research in progress. They may not have been subject to the formal editorial review accorded official Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland publications. The views stated herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank...

Business Cycle Features In The Iranian Economy